The World’s Busiest Oil Route Is Closed — And Nobody Wants to Reopen It by Force

One of the most striking features of the Strait of Hormuz crisis is not what is happening — it is what is not. Despite the closure of the world’s busiest oil shipping route, the largest supply disruption in energy history, sixteen tanker attacks, and urgent appeals from President Trump, not a single country has committed to sending warships to confront Iran’s blockade. Trump posted on Truth Social urging the UK, France, China, Japan, South Korea, and all oil-importing nations to dispatch naval forces — but the response across the board has been one of deliberate caution, careful deliberation, or flat-out refusal.
Iran’s blockade was triggered by US-Israeli airstrikes and has shuttered a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil exports normally pass. Tehran has openly declared that tankers bound for the US, Israel, or allied nations are legitimate military targets. Sixteen ships have been struck since the conflict began in late February, and Iranian officials have floated the prospect of mining the passage. The US itself has not deployed its own navy to escort tankers through the dangerous waters — a fact that has not gone unnoticed by potential coalition partners being asked to assume that risk.
France ruled out any deployment while fighting continued, with its defence minister stating the position firmly and publicly. President Macron’s reference to a future defensive escort mission came with a clear condition: the fighting’s most intense phase must first end. The UK is discussing mine-hunting drones as a possible option. Japan said the threshold for deployment was very high. South Korea is reviewing its options carefully. The EU’s Aspides mission — just three ships from France, Italy, and Greece — has been proposed as a platform for expanding coverage to the gulf, but Germany’s foreign minister publicly questioned its effectiveness and the wisdom of expansion.
The global economic cost of inaction is enormous and growing. Oil prices have surged as the disruption bites into supply chains across Asia and Europe. For nations like South Korea and Japan, which rely heavily on Gulf crude, the sustained closure of the strait is a genuine economic emergency. Yet the prospect of losing naval vessels and sailors to Iranian strikes or mines in an active war zone has proved an even more powerful deterrent than the economic cost of staying out.
China’s involvement may ultimately determine whether a diplomatic solution is possible. Beijing is reportedly in talks with Tehran about allowing tankers to pass and has emphasised communication and de-escalation as its preferred tools. The Chinese embassy confirmed Beijing’s constructive intentions in statements to media. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he expected China to be a constructive partner, acknowledging that dialogue with multiple nations was underway. Whether diplomacy can succeed where force has been feared to go remains the central question of the entire crisis.