Conflict-Driven Slowdown: BP Blames Geopolitics for Fossil Fuel Revival

Geopolitical turmoil is the primary reason the global clean energy transition is stalling and fossil fuel demand is being revived, according to BP’s latest annual outlook. The energy giant has raised its long-term forecasts for oil and gas consumption, acknowledging that world events are pushing the 2050 net-zero target out of reach.
BP’s revised figures indicate a sustained appetite for hydrocarbons. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
BP’s chief economist explicitly links this trend to global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, Middle East instability, and rising trade tariffs, which have intensified national demands for energy security. While this focus could lead some nations to accelerate domestic low-carbon electrification to become ‘electrostates,’ the report warns of the counter-risk: an increased preference for maximizing domestically produced fossil fuels over potentially volatile imported energy.
The climate consequences are dire. BP’s modeling shows that the world is on a trajectory that will breach the cumulative 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. The company warns that this extended delay increases the economic and social costs required for future climate mitigation efforts. To meet the 2050 net-zero goal, BP states that oil demand must drop aggressively to about 35 million b/d by that date.
Despite the rapid and necessary deployment of renewables—which are set to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil will maintain its dominant position. Oil is forecast to remain the single largest source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are set to rise from 10% to 15% of the primary energy supply by 2035, but are not expected to surpass oil until the late 2040s, highlighting the structural inertia in the energy system.