Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s initiative to potentially lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil stranded on tankers is testing the resolve of the United States’ sanctions regime against Tehran in a visible and consequential way, analysts said Thursday. Bessent confirmed the administration is considering the measure, involving approximately 140 million barrels of Iranian crude, to address oil prices above $100 per barrel caused by Iran’s Hormuz blockade.
The resolve of the US sanctions regime against Tehran has been a cornerstone of American Iran policy for decades, designed to deny the Iranian government the oil revenues it needs to fund its nuclear program, military activities, and regional proxy network. The Hormuz crisis has created a direct test of that resolve by making the maintenance of sanctions economically costly in a way that is highly visible to global audiences.
Bessent confirmed the Iranian crude on tankers, originally heading toward Chinese ports, as the focus of the resolve test. A targeted temporary waiver could redirect approximately 140 million barrels to global markets, he said, providing roughly two weeks of price support during the US campaign to force Iran to reopen the strait — but at the visible cost of permitting Iranian oil revenues.
The Treasury has previously allowed comparable resolve tests, including a waiver for Russian oil that added approximately 130 million barrels to world supply. An additional unilateral US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release beyond the G7’s 400 million barrel commitment is also being planned, while the administration has maintained its firm opposition to financial market intervention.
Sanctions experts and geopolitical analysts were specific in their concerns about the resolve test. They warned that visibly permitting Iranian oil revenues — providing funds for military activities and proxy support — under economic pressure signals to Tehran and other sanctions targets that the resolve of US sanctions can be overcome through sufficient market disruption. Critics argued that passing this resolve test intact, by finding alternative supply solutions that do not enable Iranian oil revenues, would ultimately strengthen the deterrent value of the US sanctions regime far more than any temporary price relief from the Iranian crude waiver.