Realistic Sequencing Advocated as Alternative to Comprehensive Agreement

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s call for realistic sequencing and proper prioritization represents an alternative approach to comprehensive agreements attempting to resolve all issues simultaneously. This pragmatic perspective suggests that incremental progress on achievable objectives may succeed where ambitious comprehensive frameworks fail.
The sequencing debate involves fundamental questions about peace process design. Comprehensive approaches attempt to resolve all issues together, preventing parties from claiming benefits without fulfilling all obligations. Incremental approaches build confidence through successive achievements but risk allowing parties to pocket gains without completing difficult later steps.
Fidan’s specific suggestion that Hamas disarmament should not be the primary priority reflects judgment that frontloading contentious issues guarantees failure. Instead, prioritizing achievable confidence-building measures like force separation and aid delivery could demonstrate peace dividends while building trust necessary for tackling weapons issues. This sequencing recognizes political and practical realities limiting what parties can currently accept.
However, critics of incremental approaches warn that early steps often exhaust political capital without achieving fundamental conflict resolution. Parties may accept limited measures providing immediate relief while resisting subsequent steps requiring greater concessions. The challenge involves designing sequences that build genuine momentum rather than merely postponing difficult decisions.
The sequencing question ultimately reflects different theories about how peace is achieved. Comprehensive approaches assume that only package deals providing something for everyone can overcome zero-sum thinking. Incremental approaches assume that small successes build confidence and constituencies for peace supporting further steps. Gaza’s current impasse tests which theory better predicts implementation success.